Atmospheric Mercury Modeling

New Documents (also included in narrative below):

A new analysis of the source-attribution for 2005 atmospheric mercury deposition to the Great Lakes was carried out in 2015 with funding through the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI). This analysis, including a sensitivity analysis examining several different model configurations, and extended model evaluation results, is summarized in a Jan 2016 final report [23]. An initial version of this analysis was presented at the 2015 International Conference for Mercury as a Global Pollutant in Jeju, South Korea [24].

General Overviews:

An overview of mercury in the environment and atmospheric mercury modeling was presented in Oct 2014 to the Air Quality Research Subcommittee (AQRS) of the White House OSTP Committee on Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability (CENRS) [1].

Talks summarizing atmospheric mercury and ARL’s mercury activities were presented at ARL’s Lab Review in May 2011 [2] and in a 2012 briefing to NOAA OAR colleagues [3].

A report on Mercury Contamination in the Great Lakes was submitted to Congress in 2007 [4] and summarized in a briefing presentation [5].

A talk summarizing mercury’s public health, ecosystem cycling, bioaccumulation, and atmospheric aspects was given to the NOAA OAR Senior Research Council in Sept 2008 [6].

A talk [7] (with accompanying movie [8]) regarding source-attribution aspects of atmospheric mercury was given at the 2004 USGS Mercury Workshop in Reston, VA. An expanded version of this presentation was given at the MARAMA Mercury Workshop in Cherry Hill, NJ [9].

An overview of mercury emissions, atmospheric fate and transport, and source-receptor relationships was given at a 2006 Niagara Falls meeting organized by the U.S. EPA, the IJC, and the Ontario Ministry of the Environment [10], a 2006 seminar at Frostburg State Univ. [11], and a Dec 2008 National Water Quality Monitoring Council meeting in Reston, VA [12].

An overview of local and regional deposition impacts was given at a Nov 2005 meeting of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Mercury Rule Workgroup [13].

An overview of data needs for atmospheric mercury model evaluation was presented at an Oct 2005 meeting in Frostburg MD [14]. An overview presentation regarding mercury fate and transport in the environment was presented to the NOAA OAR Ecosystem Research Program in February 2005 [15].

modeling_cartoon2 — This figure is a conceptual diagram of the atmospheric mercury cycle, as simulated by the HYSPLIT-Hg model, including emissions, transformation, phase-partitioning, and deposition.

Model Intercomparisons:

A presentation highlighting the value of model intercomparisons was given at a 2006 EPA-IJC-OMOE meeting; this presentation summarized several examples for mercury, including the study described below, a comparison of HYSPLIT vs. ISC for near-field deposition, and a comparison of HYSPLIT vs. CMAQ for the impact of U.S. coal-fired power plants on the Great Lakes [16].

Simulation of mercury in a European modeling domain has been performed as part of a Mercury Modeling Intercomparison Project organized by MSC-East in Moscow, Russia. The overall project was summarized in a 2005 presentation [17]. Detailed results for Phase II of the project are available as a report [18] and paper [19], and HYSPLIT-specific results are also available [20]. Phase III of the project is described in a report [21] and paper [22].

hysplit_vs_cmaq — Model-estimated U.S. utility atmospheric mercury deposition contribution to the Great Lakes: HYSPLIT-Hg (1996 meteorology, 1999 emissions) vs. CMAQ-Hg (2001 meteorology and emissions).

Great Lakes:

Analysis for 2005:

A third baseline analysis for 2005 was carried out in 2015 with FY13 funding through the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI). This analysis, including a sensitivity analysis examining several different model configurations, is summarized in a Jan 2016 final report [23]. An initial version of this analysis was presented at the 2015 International Conference for Mercury as a Global Pollutant in Jeju, South Korea [24].A second baseline analysis for 2005, along with simulations for a range of potential, future emissions scenarios was carried out in 2013-14 through GLRI, and is summarized in an Oct 2014 final report [25]. A sensitivity analysis, carried out with FY11 GLRI funding, examines the influence of key uncertainties on the modeling results and is described in a brief summary [26], a final report [27] and a presentation given at the 2013 International Conference for Mercury as a Global Pollutant in Edinburgh, Scotland [28].

An initial baseline analysis of 2005 mercury deposition to the Great Lakes was first carried out during 2010-2011 under the auspices of GLRI and is described in a brief summary [29], a final report [30] and presentations [31] and [32].

Analysis for 1999:

The 1996 analysis for the Great Lakes (see below) was updated using 1999-2000 emissions inventories [33]. A presentation regarding the transport and deposition of mercury to Lake Michigan was presented to the Indiana Dept of Environmental Management’s Mercury Working Group meeting in April 2005 [34]. A presentation regarding the transport and deposition of mercury to Lake Ontario was presented at the IJC’s Biennial Meeting in Kingston, Ontario, Canada, in June 2005 [35]. The methodology and results for this 1999-2000 analysis is described in detail in the Report to Congress on Great Lakes Mercury Contamination [4].

Analysis for 1996:

A presentation regarding the 1996 atmospheric deposition of mercury to the Great Lakes [36] was given at the IJC-organized symposium An Ecosystem Approach to the Health Effects of Mercury in the Great Lakes Basin. A paper [37] (with Supporting Information [38]) was published in a special issue of the journal Environmental Research dedicated to papers arising from this meeting.

Geographic distribution of atmospheric mercury deposition contributions to Lake Michigan, estimated with the NOAA HYSPLIT-Hg atmospheric mercury fate and transport model. Click here for enlarged version of this figure, as a PDF or a Powerpoint file.

Gulf of Mexico:

A paper describing the isotopic composition of species-specific atmospheric mercury measured at the Grand Bay NERR was published in 2013 [39]. A presentation analyzing an episode of high measured atmospheric reactive gaseous mercury was given at the 10th International Conference on Mercury as a Global Pollutant in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, in 2011 [40]. Overviews of monitoring and modeling atmospheric mercury at the Grand Bay NERR were presented in Pensacola [41] and Sarasota [42], Florida, in 2010, and at Jackson State University, Jackson MS, in 2009 (talk [43] and simulation example [44]).

Source-receptor modeling results for Mobile Bay were presented at the Gulf Coast Mercury Research Collaboration Meeting in Pensacola Florida in May 2006 [45]. A description of the atmospheric mercury monitoring site at the Grand Bay NERR in Mississippi is available[46]. An overview of monitoring and modeling atmospheric mercury in the Gulf of Mexico was presented in Dec 2008 at the Gulf of Mexico Alliance Mercury Workshop in Gulfport, MS [47].

view_from_Grand_Bay_Hg_tower_sm3 — View from Grand Bay NERR atmospheric mercury measurement tower. Measurements at this site (and others) are being used to 'ground truth' atmospheric mercury models.

Other Regions:

Chesapeake Bay:

An analysis for the Chesapeake Bay was presented to the NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office [48] and at the 7th International Conference on Mercury as a Global Pollutant (ICMGP) in Slovenia in 2004 [49].

A poster presenting preliminary results from a Summer 2004 atmospheric mercury study in the Chesapeake Bay region was presented at the NADP meeting in Halifax, NS (Sept 2004) [50].

In August 2005, overview talks focusing on the Chesapeake Bay region were given to the Maryland Department of the Environment [51] and the Baltimore City Department of Law [52].

Additional analyses of the Summer 2004 data and plans for a new monitoring program at Beltsville MD were presented at the 8th International Conference on Mercury as a Global Pollutant (ICMGP) in Madison Wisconsin in August 2006 [53]

Lake Champlain:

An analysis for Lake Champlain [54] was presented at a 2003 symposium organized by NOAA Sea Grant in Burlington VT.

Rock Creek Watershed:

Source-receptor modeling results for the Rock Creek Watershed (in the Washington DC area) were presented at a NOAA Atmospheric Mercury meeting in Silver Spring, Nov 2006 [55].

ches_bay_dep_vs_distance — Emissions and direct deposition contributions from different distance ranges away from the Chesapeake Bay, estimated with the NOAA HYSPLIT-Hg atmospheric mercury fate and transport model.

Time Trends:

Potential Impacts of Future Emissions:

A report [56] and presentation [57] were prepared for the CEC, dealing with the potential consequences of future mercury emissions scenarios.

Concentration and Deposition Trends:

A report [58], poster [59], and paper [60] were prepared discussing trends in Mercury Deposition Network data. The report also includes an overview of atmospheric mercury fate/transport and a detailed section examining source-receptor case-studies for mercury wet deposition events associated with individual storms.

Report to Congress:

The NOAA Report to Congress [4] noted above also has an extensive section on mercury trends in the Great Lakes. Available trend data for mercury in biota, sediments, emissions, and deposition are summarized.

dep_trends — Modeled mercury deposition (kg/year) to the Great Lakes (1995-1996 vs. 1999-2000), arising from anthropogenic mercury air emissions sources in the U.S. and Canada. Model results for atmospheric deposition show that the U.S. contributes much more than Canada and that there was a significant decrease between 1996 and 1999-2000 (primarily due to decreased emissions from waste incineration).

Multimedia Mercury Modeling:

A 2012 paper [61] describes measurement- and model-based estimates of elemental mercury evasion in the Great Lakes Basin.

A 2008 paper [62] describes a multi-media analysis in which mercury deposition trends are estimated from sediment data and atmospheric models. In this case study for the Bay of Fundy region, data from three atmospheric chemistry models (CMAQ, GEOS-Chem, HYSPLIT) and multiple sediment archives (ombrotrophic bog, headwater lake, coastal salt marsh) were utilized. The analysis suggests that deposition attributable to US and Canadian emissions has declined in a recent years, thereby increasing the relative significance of global sources.

A presentation [63] regarding ongoing efforts to link atmospheric mercury models with mercury models in other media was given at the Contaminant Monitoring & Research Workshop Planning for the 2008 Cooperative Monitoring Year (Contaminants Component), Grand Island, New York, March 2007.

multimedia_03 — Research is being carried out in collaboration with the U.S. EPA and others to attempt to link atmospheric mercury models to aquatic fate and transport models and other models. Photo Credit: Silverander Ethnographics.

Documents Available for Viewing or Download