The NOAA Smoke Forecasting System integrates the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service’s satellite information on the location of wildfires with NOAA National Weather Service inputs from the North American Mesoscale model and smoke dispersion simulations from the NOAA ARL HYSPLIT model to produce a daily 48-hour prediction of smoke transport and concentration. The model also incorporates U.S. Forest Service estimates for wildfire smoke emissions based on vegetation cover. This system is intended as guidance to air quality forecasters and the public for fine particulate matter emitted from large wildfires and agricultural burning which can elevate particulate concentrations to unhealthful levels.
ARL is developing the HYSPLIT-based Emissions Inverse Modeling System (HEIMS) to estimate wildfire emissions from the transport and dispersion of smoke plumes inferred from NOAA GOES satellite observations. HEIMS uses the smoke transport patterns captured by geostationary satellites with a high temporal resolution as a constraint under a general four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation scheme. The model combines information from NOAA ARL, NOAA NESDIS and the US Forest Service to produce updated fire emissions. The ARL-developed HYSPLIT is the core engine for HEIMS, and products are intended for future use in the operational smoke forecast system.
Video published on YouTube Jun 29, 2012 by NOAA Visualizations
- Volcanic Ash
- Smoke Forecasting
- Smoke: Prescribed Burns
- Inverse Modeling
- Inline WRF-HYSPLIT Coupling
- DATEM Evaluation
READY Web Site
- Current Smoke Forecasts – Current smoke forecasts being produced by NOAA.
- Smoke Verification – Use of analyzed smoke from satellite imagery to verify smoke forecasts.
- HYSPLIT Model Details – Brief description of the Smoke Forecasting System.
- Relevant Links – Resources for monitoring forest and wildland fires and smoke.
Papers, Posters, and Presentations
Inverse modeling of fire emissions constrained by smoke plume transport using HYSPLIT dispersion model and geostationary observations. Kim, H. C., Chai, T., Stein, A., and Kondragunta (2020), S. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 10259–10277, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-10259-2020
Ensemble PM2.5 Forecasting during the 2018 Camp Fire Event Using the HYSPLIT Transport and Dispersion Model. Li, Y., Tong, D. Q., Ngan, F., Cohen, M. D., Stein, A. F., Kondragunta, S., et al. (2020). Ensemble PM2.5 forecasting during the 2018 Camp Fire event using the HYSPLIT transport and dispersion model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032768. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032768
Evaluating a fire smoke simulation algorithm in the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) by using multiple observation data sets during the Southeast Nexus (SENEX) field campaign. Pan, L., Kim, H., Lee, P., Saylor, R., Tang, Y., Tong, D., Baker, B., Kondragunta, S., Xu, C., Ruminski, M. G., Chen, W., Mcqueen, J., and Stajner, I.: Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2169–2184, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2169-2020
Description and Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: The 2007 Fire Season, Rolph, G.D; Draxler, R. R.; Stein, A.F.; Taylor, A; Ruminski, M.G.; Kondragunta, S.; Zeng, J,; Huang, H.; Manikin, G.; McQueen, J.T.; Davidson, P.M., Weather and Forecasting, *24, *361-378, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008WAF2222165.1
Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: Model Sensitivity to the Injection Height, Stein, A.F.; Rolph, G.D.; Draxler, R.R.; Stunder, B.; Ruminski, M.G., Weather and Forecasting, *24*, 379-394, 2009 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008WAF2222166.1
Regional real-time smoke prediction systems, Susan O.Neill, N. Larkin, J. Hoadley, G. Mills, J. Vaughn, R.Draxler, G.Rolph, M. Ruminski, and S. Ferguson, Wildland Fires and Air Pollution, A. Bytnerowicz et al., Eds., Developments in Environmental Science Series, Vol. 8, Elsevier, 499-534. https://www.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/pubs/34280
Use of Environmental Satellite Imagery for Smoke Depiction and Transport Model Initialization, Mark Ruminski, Shobha Kondragunta, Roland Draxler and Glenn Rolph, 16th International Emission Inventory Conference, Raleigh, North Carolina (5/07).
Recent Changes to the Hazard Mapping System, Mark Ruminski, Shobha Kondragunta, Roland Draxler and Jian Zeng, 15th International Emission Inventory Conference, New Orleans, Louisiana (5/06) Paper: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Publications/EPA_msy-conf.pdf