The NOAA Smoke Forecasting System integrates the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service’s satellite information on the location of wildfires with NOAA National Weather Serviceweather inputs from the North American Mesoscale model and smoke dispersion simulations from the NOAA ARL HYSPLIT model to produce a daily 48-hour prediction of smoke transport and concentration. The model also incorporates U.S. Forest Service estimates for wildfire smoke emissions based on vegetation cover. This system is intended as guidance to air quality forecasters and the public for fine particulate matter emitted from large wildfires and agricultural burning which can elevate particulate concentrations to unhealthful levels.
Video published on YouTube Jun 29, 2012 by NOAA Visualizations
HYSPLIT
HYSPLIT Research
- Volcanic Ash
- Dust
- Smoke Forecasting
- Smoke: Prescribed Burns
- Inverse Modeling
- Inline WRF-HYSPLIT Coupling
- DATEM Evaluation
READY Web Site
- Current Smoke Forecasts – Current smoke forecasts being produced by NOAA.
- Smoke Verification – Use of analyzed smoke from satellite imagery to verify smoke forecasts.
- HYSPLIT Model Details – Brief description of the Smoke Forecasting System.
- Relevant Links – Resources for monitoring forest and wildland fires and smoke.
Papers, Posters, and Presentations
- Description and Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: The 2007 Fire Season, Rolph, G.D; Draxler, R. R.; Stein, A.F.; Taylor, A; Ruminski, M.G.; Kondragunta, S.; Zeng, J,; Huang, H.; Manikin, G.; McQueen, J.T.; Davidson, P.M., Weather and Forecasting, *24, *361-378, 2009
Abstract: http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2008WAF2222165.1
Full article: http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0434/24/2/pdf/i1520-0434-24-2-361.pdf
- Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: Model Sensitivity to the Injection Height, Stein, A.F.; Rolph, G.D.; Draxler, R.R.; Stunder, B.; Ruminski, M.G., Weather and Forecasting, *24*, 379-394, 2009
Abstract: http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2008WAF2222166.1
Full article: http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0434/24/2/pdf/i1520-0434-24-2-379.pdf
- Regional real-time smoke prediction systems, Susan O.Neill, N. Larkin, J. Hoadley, G. Mills, J. Vaughn, R.Draxler, G.Rolph, M. Ruminski, and S. Ferguson, Wildland Fires and Air Pollution, A. Bytnerowicz et al., Eds., Developments in Environmental Science Series, Vol. 8, Elsevier, 499-534.
Abstract: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/bookdescription.cws_home/716396/description#description
- Use of Environmental Satellite Imagery for Smoke Depiction and Transport Model Initialization, Mark Ruminski, Shobha Kondragunta, Roland Draxler and Glenn Rolph, 16th International Emission Inventory Conference, Raleigh, North Carolina (5/07)
Presentation: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Presentations/Conferences/EPA_rdu2007.ppt
Paper: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Publications/EPA_rdu-conf.pdf
- Recent Changes to the Hazard Mapping System, Mark Ruminski, Shobha Kondragunta, Roland Draxler and Jian Zeng, 15th International Emission Inventory Conference, New Orleans, Louisiana (5/06)
Presentation: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Presentations/Conferences/EPA_msy-conf.ppt
Paper: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Publications/EPA_msy-conf.pdf