NOAA Smoke Forecasting System

The NOAA Smoke Forecasting System integrates the NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service’s satellite information on the location of wildfires with NOAA National Weather Serviceweather inputs from the North American Mesoscale model and smoke dispersion simulations from the NOAA ARL HYSPLIT model to produce a daily 48-hour prediction of smoke transport and concentration. The model also incorporates U.S. Forest Service estimates for wildfire smoke emissions based on vegetation cover. This system is intended as guidance to air quality forecasters and the public for fine particulate matter emitted from large wildfires and agricultural burning which can elevate particulate concentrations to unhealthful levels.

Video published on YouTube Jun 29, 2012 by NOAA Visualizationsthis link opens in a new window




Papers, Posters, and Presentations

Description and Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: The 2007 Fire Season, Rolph, G.D; Draxler, R. R.; Stein, A.F.; Taylor, A; Ruminski, M.G.; Kondragunta, S.; Zeng, J,; Huang, H.; Manikin, G.; McQueen, J.T.; Davidson, P.M., Weather and Forecasting, *24, *361-378, 2009 
Abstract: http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2008WAF2222165.1 this link opens in a new window
Full article: http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0434/24/2/pdf/i1520-0434-24-2-361.pdfthis link opens in a new window
Verification of the NOAA Smoke Forecasting System: Model Sensitivity to the Injection Height, Stein, A.F.; Rolph, G.D.; Draxler, R.R.; Stunder, B.; Ruminski, M.G., Weather and Forecasting, *24*, 379-394, 2009 
Abstract: http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-abstract&doi=10.1175%2F2008WAF2222166.1 this link opens in a new window
Full article: http://ams.allenpress.com/archive/1520-0434/24/2/pdf/i1520-0434-24-2-379.pdfthis link opens in a new window
Regional real-time smoke prediction systems, Susan O.Neill, N. Larkin, J. Hoadley, G. Mills, J. Vaughn, R.Draxler, G.Rolph, M. Ruminski, and S. Ferguson, Wildland Fires and Air Pollution, A. Bytnerowicz et al., Eds., Developments in Environmental Science Series, Vol. 8, Elsevier, 499-534.
Abstract: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/bookdescription.cws_home/716396/description#descriptionthis link opens in a new window
Use of Environmental Satellite Imagery for Smoke Depiction and Transport Model Initialization, Mark Ruminski, Shobha Kondragunta, Roland Draxler and Glenn Rolph, 16th International Emission Inventory Conference, Raleigh, North Carolina (5/07) 
Presentation: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Presentations/Conferences/EPA_rdu2007.ppt
Paper: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Publications/EPA_rdu-conf.pdf
Recent Changes to the Hazard Mapping System, Mark Ruminski, Shobha Kondragunta, Roland Draxler and Jian Zeng, 15th International Emission Inventory Conference, New Orleans, Louisiana (5/06) 
Presentation: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Presentations/Conferences/EPA_msy-conf.ppt
Paper: ftp://satepsanone.nesdis.noaa.gov/Publications/EPA_msy-conf.pdf