After extensive development and testing on ARL servers, a new HYSPLIT web-based modeling system was successfully ported to a development server at the NOAA Web Operations Center (WOC). This system, once fully tested and deployed on WOC's operational servers, will give the National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters the ability to set up a release of a hazardous chemical to the atmosphere using the extensive scenario-based source term configuration of the ALOHA model. The ALOHA model was developed by NOAA's Office of Response and Restoration. Based on user selections, the model creates a time-varying release rate to feed into HYSPLIT for transport and dispersion calculations. The system also has menu-driven capabilities to model the release of other hazardous pollutants to the atmosphere such as smoke and radiological contaminants. A series of webinars is being planned this fall for NWS forecasters to familiarize them with the new system and its inputs. glenn.rolph@noaa.gov

2. Convective Initiation Project

ARL developed a project plan for a study of convective initiation (CI) in response to the FY2013 Disaster Assistance Supplemental signed into law on January 29. The study will include two field experiments in 2014 and 2015. Multiple ARL divisions are involved in the effort. The two goals for the project are to develop a probabilistic 0-6 h product using machine-learning approaches operating on real-time observations and to improve the models that predict CI. Field experiment activities will collect key observations to not only validate model predictions but to complement the database processing actual CI occurrence and identify critical surface and boundary layer processes associated with CI. For this effort, there will be a heavy reliance on data from NOAA and NASA satellite sensors including surface temperatures, cloud products (optical depth, effective radius), land use, elevation, topography, derived fields like Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and established algorithms that retrieve sensible heating (H), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture, and atmospheric water vapor content. A second approach for enhancing our predictive capabilities for CI is to evaluate the current land-surface and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterizations used in existing forecast models such as WRF, and to make improvements where necessary. Data from the field experiments will help evaluate the skill of existing parameterizations in forecasting the spatial variability of surface temperatures, fluxes, and other boundary-layer variables critical to CI. Improved land-surface and PBL parameterizations will be developed as warranted. ARL's work will be coordinated with other OAR laboratories that have related research efforts. tilden.meyers@noaa.gov; richard.eckman@noaa.gov

3. Project Sagebrush

Phase 1 field deployment for Project Sagebrush is scheduled for the first two weeks of October 2013 at the Idaho National Laboratory. Preparation of the necessary equipment has been and will continue to be a major activity until then. Tubing is being replaced in the existing 135 air samplers and an additional 14 samplers are being constructed. Tests on the tubing that will be used in the new samplers were started the first week of June and are continuing. Supplies for the air sampling system and the near real time tracer analyzers are being ordered. One analyzer has been shipped to the University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI) for integration into a Cessna 210 aircraft for airborne sampling. Conditioning and necessary repairs on the near real-time analyzers will begin about August 1 and continue to until the project starts.

With the planned participation of the UTSI aircraft in the October field study, FRD is developing flight patterns for sampling the tracer plume. Aircraft sampling can be a challenge in tracer studies, because the constant movement of the aircraft precludes the collection of time-averaged concentrations at fixed points. The planned flight pattern includes crosswind legs at downwind distances ranging between 400 and 3200 m and altitudes from 100 to 500 m above the ground. An along-wind leg near the plume centerline may also be included. kirk.clawson@noaa.gov

4. Birch Creek Valley Study

Phase 1 of the Birch Creek Valley Study concluded in June. It was begun in December, 2012 and was focused primarily on the interactions between wind flows in the Birch Creek Valley, a large intermontane valley with relief of several thousand feet, and the large scale wind flows of the adjoining Snake River Plain with its prominent up and down plain diurnal flows. The study was conducted on the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) property and on INL-leased property. Only FRD was involved with these measurements.

Phase 2 of the Birch Creek Valley Study began in June. The focus of this larger effort was to acquire more detailed measurement of wind flows within the Birch Creek Valley itself. The study also involves other participants besides FRD using federal lands adjacent to the INL. FRD completed the relocation of the radar profiler, 3 sodars, and two sonic anemometers into the valley from June 10-12. The USFS Fire Science Laboratory deployed 75 wind sensors and a sodar from June 11-13. Washington State University deployed two flux station towers including instrumentation for additional turbulence measurements from June 20-23. All deployments are now complete and everything is operational. Some wind events have already been observed in Phase 2 that highlight some large scale flow features in complex terrain. dennis.finn@noaa.gov

5. Flux Measurements

Progress was made on a study involving the measurement of carbon dioxide and water vapor fluxes from an arid shrub-steppe ecosystem at the INL. This is a multi-year study that is ongoing. Preliminary results have now been completed for the years 2007-2010. dennis.finn@noaa.gov

6. Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP)

FRD started analysis of wind data collected at three sites in Texas during WFIP, a wind-energy study sponsored by the Department of Energy. The WFIP observations included surface fluxes from sonic anemometers and wind profiles up to about 200 m above the ground from collocated sodars. One issue that had to be addressed was determining reasonable estimates of roughness lengths and displacement heights at the sites. There were difficulties in obtaining such estimates from the available data, so a probabilistic regression technique was developed to provide both mean values and uncertainties about the means. Flux data from the sonics were then used to examine the wind profiles as a function of atmospheric stability and compare the observed profiles with expected profiles from boundary-layer theory. richard.eckman@noaa.gov, Dennis Finn

7. Consequence Assessment for the Nevada National Security Site

Rick Lantrip completed his qualifications and testing to become a full member of the SORD Consequence Assessment Team (CAT). As a CAT member, Rick will respond to Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) emergency response events as a member of the Emergency Response Organization and provide weather information, dispersion modeling, and consequence assessment projections. Congratulations Rick! rick.lantrip@noaa.gov

8. Support for Experiments on the NNSS

SORD provided enhanced weather support for two non-proliferation experiments on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). This support included weather forecasts and a lightning watch focused on the experiment location, and multiple radiosonde balloon releases. These activities are necessary to provide information for use in experiment set-up and for the safety of the personnel. This support is critical to the preparation of the experiment, as the NNSS weather is influenced by monsoonal moisture which can lead to thunderstorm activity where cloud to ground lighting strikes pose a safety threat. The Shock Physics Experiment was postponed due to technical reasons. The second experiment partnered with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and had three balloon releases. The first balloon released was to collect data to characterize the local atmospheric structure in the morning to aid in the experiment time forecast. Another release occurred prior to experiment time to verify safe and required experiment conduct parameters. A third, post-experiment, release was conducted as a comparison. Data were reviewed and provided to the Principle Investigator. walter.w.schalk@noaa.gov; James Wood; Rick Lantrip; and Kip Smith.

AIR QUALITY

9. Analysis of Fine Particulate Matter Data

Abigail Birnbaum completed a 4-month internship with Dian Seidel at ARL during which she studied the effects of Independence Day fireworks on hourly concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) in ambient air. Her analysis of multi-year data from 15 US locations showed distinct increases in mean PM_2.5in the late evening and early morning hours of July 4-5 compared with control days before and after the holiday. At two sites, the increases were large enough to result in exceedences of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for daily-average PM_2.5concentrations. Refinement of the analysis and extension of these preliminary findings next summer could result in guidance for including fireworks emissions as a pollution source in air quality models. Abigail is a 2013 graduate of the Charles E. Smith Jewish Day School and will be a freshman at Cornell University in the fall. dian.seidel@noaa.gov

10. Great Lakes Restoration Initiative
The 2^nd phase of a multi-year project to estimate the amounts and source-attribution for atmospheric mercury deposition to the Great Lakes was completed and a final report was prepared. The overall objective of this phase was to assess the sensitivity of the baseline modeling results -- developed in the 1^st phase of the work -- to uncertainties in model inputs, parameters, and algorithms. The analysis consisted of two parts: (a) a detailed sensitivity analysis for a small number of illustrative sources, representing local, regional, national and global source impacts on the Great Lakes; and (b) an examination of the influence of a few methodological variations on the full analysis, i.e., the impacts of all mercury emissions sources combined. The variations examined for the full analysis were: (i) the use of different meteorological datasets used to drive the HYSPLIT-Hg model; (ii) variations in the mercury re-emissions rate; and (iii) variations in the spatial interpolation methodology used to provide source-by-source impacts. While the overall fractions of the deposition contributed by key source types and regions were impacted somewhat by the simulation variations, the relative source-attribution results were not dramatically affected. This suggests that the results are reasonably robust, at least from the perspective of the relative importance of different source types and source regions to the deposition of mercury to the Great Lakes basin. mark.cohen@noaa.gov

11. Ammonia Research
Darryl Sibble and Jason Caldwell, both Ph.D. students in the School of the Environment at Florida A&M University and who are now with the NOAA Environmental Cooperative Science Center, visited with Latoya Myles at the Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division in Oak Ridge to discuss their ammonia research projects and plan field experiments over the next year. Caldwell will focus on further development of the cavity-ring down spectrometer for measuring ammonia fluxes. Sibble will develop parameterizations for stomatal compensation point for several different types of vegetation. latoya.myles@noaa.gov

The National Science Foundation has officially recommended the project "Collaborative Research: NH₃ emission from fertilizer application: understanding an uncertain input to air quality models" for funding. The work will be led by researchers from the University of Illinois. LaToya Myles will be a co-Principal Investigator. Field work is slated to begin in spring 2014. latoya.myles@noaa.gov

CLIMATE

12. Climate Engineering

"A Bibliometric Analysis of Climate Engineering Research" by Chris Belter (NOAA Central Library and LAC Group) and Dian Seidel was accepted for publication in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. Climate engineering (geoengineering) is gaining interest and attention in scientific and policy arenas. This review of the scientific literature on climate engineering puts into context the state of scientific understanding and the nature of the international scientific effort. It shows rapid growth of the field (mainly in the past 5 years), the geographic distribution of contributions (with Northern Hemisphere and English-speaking countries contributing disproportionately), the range of topics addressed, and the nature of collaborations. The analysis of publications through 2012 provides a baseline for monitoring future developments. dian.seidel@noaa.gov

13. Dust Climatology

ARL participated in the development of a dust climatology methodology over the western United States. The methodology combines meteorological station observations, in-situ air quality measurements, and satellite observed aerosol optical depth. The climatology dates back to 1948. The methodology has been completed, and a pilot data set has been analyzed. Currently, complete data generation over entire western U.S. and final quality control is under way. This dust climatology is targeted for model verification and climate studies. julian.wang@noaa.gov

14. FOCAL - Alaska Study

The Flux Observations of Carbon from an Airborne Laboratory (FOCAL) system was test flown again, and several changes were made to the system since the last flight test in February 2013. The changes included reducing the weight of the system and adding capabilities to both the Harvard and ARL packages. Harvard added a methane isotopologue measurement axis, and ARL added a downward-looking visible camera to the instrument suite.

Despite efforts to reduce the weight of the payload, the aircraft was 63 pounds over what is called the zero fuel weight. This is a specification by the manufacturer of the maximum weight of the aircraft and pilot without fuel, therefore the payload weight had to be reduced before the aircraft could be flown. The solution was to fly two configurations, one being the CO₂ and non-isotope CH₄ axes and the other being the CH₄ isotopologue axis. The weight gain of ATDD equipment was minimal. The BAT probe weight was reduced by 0.5 pound and the new camera added 0.75 pounds for a net gain of 0.25 pounds. Additional changes were made to the BAT probe power supply to improve reliability of the fiber-optic temperature sensor, which proved to be successful.

Preparations were made for the FOCAL study on Alaska's North Slope. This will be the first time isotope ratios of CH₄ and CO₂ will be measured at a high rate (2 per second) from a small aircraft simultaneously with fluxes of total CH₄, CO₂, and H₂O to help identify the spatial distribution of the sources of the greenhouse gas exchange over the tundra. The aircraft and instruments of the FOCAL system were fully configured, certified, and test flown in February. Second test flights, including low-altitude flux runs, were made June 19 - 21 over coastal marshes at the NASA facility at Wallops Island, Virginia. These flights were coordinated with a ground-based flux tower deployed by ATDD in the marshes to measure the same gases. The flux tower was then shipped to Alaska in preparation for installation in late July. The tests were executed flawlessly and yielded valuable data from which we have now have experience-based understanding of the operation of this new system. The purpose of the test flights was to compare the fluxes of CO₂ and CH₄ measured by the aircraft with those from the ground-based tower. ed.dumas@noaa.gov, john.kochendorfer@noaa.gov; R. Dobosy, D.L. Senn, and C.B. Baker

15. Climate Reference Networks (CRN and USRCRN)

Staff made annual maintenance visits to 45 Climate Reference Network (CRN) sites and 38 Regional Climate Reference Network (RCRN) sites. mark.e.hall@noaa.gov

ARL 3rd Quarter Publications

Journals

Belter, C. W. and D. J. Seidel (2013), A bibliometric analysis of climate engineering research. Published On-Line in WIREs Climate Change. doi: 10.1002/wcc.229

Chen, B., A. F. Stein, Pabla Guerrero Maldonado, Ana M. Sanchez de la Campa, Yolanda Gonzalez-Castanedo, Nuria Castell, Jesus D. de la Rosa. (2013). Size distribution and concentrations of heavy metals in atmospheric aerosols originating from industrial emissions as predicted by the HYSPLIT model. Atmospheric Environment. 71: 234-244. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.02.013

Gaiero, D. M., L. Simonella, S. Gassó, S. Gili, A. F. Stein, P. Sosa, R. Becchio, J. Arce, and H. Marelli, (2013). Ground/satellite observations and atmospheric modeling of dust storms originating in the high Puna-Altiplano deserts (South America): Implications for the interpretation of paleo-climatic archives. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres., 118, 1-15. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50036.

Kochendorfer, John, Tilden P. Meyers, John Frank, William J. Massman and Mark W. Heuer (2013). Reply to the Comment by Mauder on "How Well Can We Measure the Vertical Wind Speed? Implications for Fluxes of Energy and Mass." Boundary Layer Meteorology. Volume 147, Issue 2, 337-345. doi:10.1007/s10546-012-9792-8.

Orza, J. A. G., M. Cabello, V. Galiano, A.T. Vermeulen, and A. F. Stein. (2013) The Association Between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Interannual Variability of the Tropospheric Transport Pathways in Western Europe, in Lagrangian Modeling of the Atmosphere (eds J. Lin, D. Brunner, C. Gerbig, A. Stohl, A. Luhar and P. Webley), American Geophysical Union, Washington, D. C.. 127-142. doi: 10.1029/2012GM001315.

Ren, Xinrong, Diana van Duin, Maria Cazorla, Shuang Chen, Jingqiu Mao, Li Zhang, William H. Brune, James H. Flynn, Nicole Grossberg, Barry L. Lefer, Bernhard Rappenglück, Kam W. Wong, Catalina Tsai, Jochen Stutz, Jack E. Dibb, B. Thomas Jobson, Winston T. Luke, and Paul Kelley (2013). Atmospheric oxidation chemistry and ozone production: Results from SHARP 2009 in Houston, Texas. Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres. 118, 5770-5780, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50342.

Sus, O., M. W. Heuer, T. P. Meyers, and M. Williams (2013). A data assimilation framework for constraining upscaled cropland carbon flux seasonality and biometry with MODIS. Biogeosciences, 10, 2451-2466. doi: 10.5194/bg-10-2451-2013.

Awards, Honors, Recognition

Rick Saylor was named as one of the "Best Reviewers" for 2012 by the Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association (JAWMA). The "Best Reviewers" awards represent 0.5% of all reviewers of JAWMA and are awarded annually.

Outreach

Rick Lantrip with the Special Operations and Research Division in Las Vegas participated in Career Day for a local fifth grade class. Rick gave three 30 minute presentations that talked about the weather field, the exciting things he has had the opportunity to do in his job, the types of jobs you can do in the field, and what subjects are important to study.

James Wood with the Special Operations and Research Division in Las Vegas visited a local middle school and gave five 1-hour long weather presentations to 7th graders. The presentations included a description of the weather field, a hands-on history of wind and temperature instruments, how weather data are collected and used, and a discussion of the weather and climate of Southern Nevada.

James also led a weather booth for Cub Scout Pack 560 at the annual Scout Expo in Las Vegas, NV. The booth had information about the weather and climate of southern Nevada, basic properties and characteristics of the atmosphere, a hands-on history of wind and temperature instruments, how weather data are collected and used, and a demonstration of a dust-devil "tornado box."