HYSPLIT model forecasts dangerous ash spread from chemical fire

September 15, 2025

Firefighters responded to a chemical fire at a manufacturing plant in Newburgh, IN on Saturday, September 6. Warrick County Emergency Management used ARL’s HYSPLIT model to issue shelter-in-place orders to protect residents around the plant. 

ARL’s HYSPLIT model can track and forecast the release of hazardous airborne materials. This is valuable for emergency managers trying to determine areas most at risk and to efficiently and effectively put in place their response efforts. 

The Weather Forecast Office in Paducah, KY sent four different HYSPLIT model runs to Warrick County Emergency Managers and two neighboring counties throughout the day and into Sunday morning. Residents were advised to shelter in place, keep doors and windows closed and not to touch any ash they encountered.

Officials were worried that aluminum, magnesium and zinc metals burned in the fire. Those particular metals have very high PH levels causing the ash from them to react with oils on the skin and cause burns. ARL’s HYSPLIT model helped officials see the areas around the plant where the community would be most at risk from spreading ash to issue those shelter-in-place orders. Follow up model runs showed officials the expanding affected areas over time so they could revise warnings as needed to keep the public safe.

map with white background and roads marked. Yellow overlay takes up much of the viewable area.
Warrick County Sheriff's Office map of the shelter-in-place area. The source of the fire is in the upper left corner of the yellow area. Credit: Warrick County Sherriff's Office
Map showing border of Indiana and Kentucky. A large red arrow denotes emission point and yellow trapezoid marks area of concern.
Warrick County Sheriff's Office map of shelter-in-place area overlaid on a Google map. Arrow denotes approximate location of fire. Credit: Warrick County Sheriff's Office and Tracey Bien-Aimé (NOAA/ORAU)