air quality model helps during wildfires

ARL collaborates on air quality model providing hourly information to help forecasters during wildfires

August 28, 2025

Smoke from wildfires can affect communities up to thousands of miles away. In 2024 fires in northwest Canada led to poor air quality alerts across the U.S. from the Midwest through the East Coast. NOAA is helping emergency managers and protecting residents from wildfire smoke with hourly air quality forecasts four times a day and 72 hours into the future.

The model, known as Air Quality Model version 7, takes a unique approach – incorporating data from multiple satellite sources to reduce uncertainty. The satellites constantly observe specific areas of the Earth, allowing hourly updates on wildfire emissions (based on heat signatures) rather than the once a day updates from older satellite observations.

The Air Resources Laboratory’s updated air quality model was available during the January fires in California and current wildfires in the western states. State forecasters can use the model’s inputs to make predictions for emergency managers to direct firefighting efforts more effectively and to determine if evacuation or shelter at home orders are needed for specific areas.

map of California with the different colors showing more and less concentrations over the state. — Air Quality Model v. 7 72-hour forecast of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations made on Jan 10, 2025. Credit: ARLand EMC

Animated concentrations in purple, red, orange, yellow and green moving over the pacific northwest. — Air Quality Model v. 7 72-hour forecast of column integrated smoke concentrations made on August 28, 2025. Credit: NOAA ARL and EMC (Click for animation)

Poor air quality can lead to increased deaths, heart and lung disease and cancer rates and also impact local economies. Economic costs include lost workdays and reduced productivity of workers, increased healthcare, environmental damage and lost ecosystem services – including tourism, agriculture and flood protection. The World Bank found that the U.S. economy loses approximately $800 billion per year due to air pollution.

By providing accurate and timely predictions to forecasters, NOAA helps local, state, regional and communities use their resources to protect people and property. The model was developed by NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) and the Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) in College Park, Maryland.